Big difference between “I don’t think Russia is going to invade” and “Russia will never invade, was never going to invade, everyone who thinks so is stupid”, Crimea is just a big joke, anyone who thinks otherwise is “liberal QAnon”, the only reason the West is claiming this is because they are stoking tension.
It’s the analysis of international affairs at the level of a 15 year old. It’s cringe, it’s frequently wrong, and it’s delusional. There was no fundamental analysis on the feasibility of a Russian ground invasion.
Plus I remember at the time even people in Ukraine didn’t think it was gonna happen and that it was just America saber rattling.
What is this even supposed to mean? Some people probably did. I don’t know how this is relevant, to him being so confidently wrong about it.
But even so after he was proven wrong he took responsibility and was open about the fact that he was wrong.
This is irrelevant. His analysis was completely delusional.
At the time people knew it would be a bad move for Russia to invade not because of whether it would militarily go well but because of the sanctions that would follow and hurt the Russian economy. Also when I said people in Ukraine said that I meant government officials. I didn’t go more into that as I don’t fully remember the context but I remember before the invasion there were news interviews with Ukrainian officials saying that Russia wouldn’t invade and that the US shouldn’t stoke tensions in the region.
With all of that in mind I think it’s fair to think that Russia wasn’t actually gonna invade because it would be really stupid for them to do so and the people in the region were saying it wouldn’t happen. I don’t think that analysis is delusional, the conclusion ended up being wrong but the reasoning behind it was solid at the time. Of course with hind sight you can see more signs and reasons as to why it ended up happening but with the info that was available at the time it made sense as to why invading would be a bad idea. Which was proven right by how badly the war has been going both economically and militarily for Russia.
Big difference between “I don’t think Russia is going to invade” and “Russia will never invade, was never going to invade, everyone who thinks so is stupid”, Crimea is just a big joke, anyone who thinks otherwise is “liberal QAnon”, the only reason the West is claiming this is because they are stoking tension.
It’s the analysis of international affairs at the level of a 15 year old. It’s cringe, it’s frequently wrong, and it’s delusional. There was no fundamental analysis on the feasibility of a Russian ground invasion.
What is this even supposed to mean? Some people probably did. I don’t know how this is relevant, to him being so confidently wrong about it.
This is irrelevant. His analysis was completely delusional.
At the time people knew it would be a bad move for Russia to invade not because of whether it would militarily go well but because of the sanctions that would follow and hurt the Russian economy. Also when I said people in Ukraine said that I meant government officials. I didn’t go more into that as I don’t fully remember the context but I remember before the invasion there were news interviews with Ukrainian officials saying that Russia wouldn’t invade and that the US shouldn’t stoke tensions in the region.
With all of that in mind I think it’s fair to think that Russia wasn’t actually gonna invade because it would be really stupid for them to do so and the people in the region were saying it wouldn’t happen. I don’t think that analysis is delusional, the conclusion ended up being wrong but the reasoning behind it was solid at the time. Of course with hind sight you can see more signs and reasons as to why it ended up happening but with the info that was available at the time it made sense as to why invading would be a bad idea. Which was proven right by how badly the war has been going both economically and militarily for Russia.