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  • Ostrakon@lemmy.worldtoxkcd@lemmy.worldxkcd #3015: D&D Combinatorics
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    4 months ago

    You have a 1 in 2 chance of pulling a cursed arrow the first time.

    If you pulled a cursed arrow the first time, the second arrow has a 4 in 9 chance to be cursed. Otherwise, it’s 5 in 9.

    Personally I’d have resolved this as a single d10 once, and rerolled a 10 on the second arrow. I haven’t done the math to know if 3d6+1d4 <16 yields the same probability though.