• 0 Posts
  • 144 Comments
Joined 8 months ago
Cake day: May 1st, 2024
  • Bertuccio@lemmy.worldtoLemmy Shitpost@lemmy.world•True Story
    419·
    2 months ago

    They didn’t lead to the apathy - they pointed out the existing apathy would cost Dems the election. It’s like saying the person who said you need to wear a seatbelt caused the wreck.

    You’re exactly right about people being excited for Trump and lukewarm on Harris, but that’s entirely on the Democrats for picking the platform and strategy that lost to Trump in 2016.

    Harris had a notable and surprising lead when they announced Biden was out - then they changed nothing else. People didn’t just not like the candidate, they didn’t like the policies. They only changed the candidate and thought Trump was a big enough cudgel to bully people into voting even though that demonstrably doesn’t work.

  • Bertuccio@lemmy.worldtoMemes@lemmy.ml•The blue line is getting thinner
    151·
    2 months ago

    You’re definitely on the right track.

    The only actual job of the police is to file crime reports.

    They do not prevent crime. Protect innocents. Make people show up for court etc. They have no obligation to stop a crime in progress or protect someone being hurt, even if they’re standing right there and could stop it.

    Anything in the justice system that you value is either done by someone else, or actually isn’t done at all.

  • Bertuccio@lemmy.worldtomemes@lemmy.world•A step too far
    5·
    2 months ago

    Also Brown definitely wouldn’t have been the first to enforce faux tradition.

    That shit has existed forever and the more meaningless, the more militant.

    Ketchup on hotdogs. Folded pizza. Seafood with red wine.

    All said with more authority yet far less evidence than anything Alton Brown ever said.

  • Bertuccio@lemmy.worldtoPolitical Memes@lemmy.world•This alone.
    21·
    2 months ago

    Post hoc ergo propter hoc means “after this therefore because of this”. The name of the fallacy is the claim the arguer is making, that because one event happened soon after another event, it was caused by the earlier event. A common example is that deciduous trees lose their leaves after it gets cold, so they lose their leaves because it gets cold. The actual reason is complex and has little to do with temperature. It’s partly that day lengths get shorter and the leaves no longer can absorb enough energy to match their costs.

    It is similar to correlation doesn’t equal causation, but is more specific that it has to do with two events that happen at similar times, which is specifically called out in the tweet.

    That the argument is heuristic and not logical is that logic has a pretty limited use - where you can reasonably agree on premises to make a specific type of argument that relies on how that argument is constructed. Heuristics rely on probability, what’s the most likely outcome given a set of preceding causes, or what are the most likely causes given a following event. For example most problems in my line of work are from loose connections, so it’s the first thing I look for when something is going wrong. You can’t say “because I see this event it is logically this cause” but you can say “When I’ve seen this event before 80% of the time it was cause A, 15% of the time it was cause B, and 5% of the time it was cause C. So I’ll check them in order of likelihood”

    So the tweet isn’t making a logical claim. They’re saying it’s unlikely that Trump talked to Putin about informants, requested the list of informants, had a list of informants in an unsecured place, but somehow wasn’t related to those informants being compromised.

    EDIT: Also Wikipedia has a better explanation of pheph: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc

  • Bertuccio@lemmy.worldtoFunny: Home of the Haha@lemmy.world•It's Halloween
    3·
    2 months ago

    A brief internet search says the signal in the real thing is mechanically generated by pressing the trigger on the hand unit, helpfully called the M57 firing device. So just shorting the wires without external power wouldn’t trigger it.

    That activates a blasting cap which is installed in the mine when it’s placed. I’m pretty sure it just needs one cap to work, but there are two places for them on top - the little upside down tophats where the wires end in the picture. So the one in the image might be wired wrong; both wires would need to go to the same cap on one side.

    I don’t know if a doorbell has enough juice to activate a blasting cap.